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If you think the 2007 Iowa Republican Party straw poll in Ames, conducted just a few weeks ago, is old news, then you certainly think the 1999 straw poll is ancient history.
In that case, think of this story as the first insight to the straw poll of 2011.
That's because looking back to 1999 – before this year the last Republican straw poll in Iowa with no incumbent as a candidate – can shed some light on what happened this year and what might happen in 2011, if the straw poll and the Iowa caucuses survive.
It is difficult to unearth all the 2007 particulars because the Republican Party of Iowa won't file its final 2007 financial accounting with the Iowa Campaign Ethics and Disclosure Board until January. Similar filings will not be made with the Federal Elections Commission until then either.
So we reviewed hundreds of pages of the 1999 filings at the state and federal levels, had email exchanges and phone conversations with a few GOP leaders, and came up with at least three propositions that are likely to hold for understanding what happened in 2007 and and what may happen in 2011.
The real winner: The Iowa GOP estimated its 1999 straw poll revenue at better than $1 million, with most of that coming from $925,000 in the sale of 37,000 tickets, at $25 apiece. A ticket holder could vote for one of 12 candidates. In 2007, about 26,000 tickets were sold at $35 apiece for a total of $910,000; that sum was supplemented by other revenue efforts, like selling space for candidates' tents at up to $25,000 a site. So George W. Bush was the candidate winner in 1999, when he got 31 percent of the vote. Bush also led in contributions direct to the state GOP, kicking in a little more than half of about $667,000 that the 1999 candidates turned over to the state party. Mitt Romney got 32 percent of the vote in 2007; it is expected that he, too, will be shown to be the big spender when the state GOP files its reports in January. (If you are interested in what 1999 candidate got the most for the money, the winner hands down was Elizabeth Dole. Her campaign contributed less than 1 percent of the candidate revenue to the state GOP, but got 14 percent of the straw poll vote, to finish third behind Bush and Steve Forbes. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas – who finished second to Romney this year – apparently was a low spender in 2007, but his candidacy is given a better chance than Dole's was in the wake of the straw poll.)
About 65 percent of the straw poll revenue in 1999 can be traced directly to the various campaigns; other funds came from donors in support of their candidates or from groups or individuals who purchased straw poll tickets on their own.
Out-of-state people and the no-shows: Part of what drove this look back to 1999 was trying to understand why ticket sales to the straw poll so out numbered the total votes case. According to the state GOP, in 1999, some 13,315 tickets were not cashed in as votes. In 2007, un-voted tickets totaled about 11,700. Given ticket prices, that amounts to a total of $742,375 in un-voted tickets – roughly a third of the combined revenue for both straw polls, and, as they say, that ain't hay. But that, money was not wasted. The straw poll is a fund raiser to support the caucus and party candidates in Iowa. Still, if you lived out of state and contributed to a presidential candidate in the hopes of improving the candidate's vote total in the straw poll, you might have instead contributed more directly to the campaign of an Iowa legislator. (According to the 1999 FEC report about 40 contributions in the $1,000-to-$5,000 range were made to the Iowa GOP from out of state people in the month or so before the straw poll.)
Why the no-shows? According to the figures of the Iowa GOP, about 60 percent of the ticket holders voted in the 1999 and 2007 straw polls combined. That left the remaining 40 percent of the tickets generating revenue for the Iowa GOP, but no votes for the candidates. Craig Robinson of the state GOP points out that you have to have a ticket to get into Hilton Coliseum to hear the candidates speak, and that a lot of people – especially party faithful who are non-Iowans – might use their tickets for that.
Jim Wieder, a Des Moines CPA who does work for the state GOP, was involved with the 1999 straw poll. He said his recollection is that a lot of out-of-state people turned out then and many ticket purchases were made by party supporters and by other party faithful on behalf of a particular candidate.
Also, of course, individual campaigns likely purchase more tickets than they are able to use; so that also adds to the un-voted tickets and to state GOP coffers. No refunds are granted on tickets.
Straw poll administration: In the state and federal filings by the Iowa GOP, at least $126,000 is directly traceable to support of the 1999 straw poll. That is about 10 to 12 percent or so of the estimated revenue, meaning that around 90 percent of the money generated by the fund raiser is used for the purposes intended – support of the caucus and Iowa political campaigns. As noted above, that's a percentage many charities would like to have. The biggest 1999 expense was about $71,500 for rental of the Iowa State University facilities.
If nothing else, the effort to "follow the money" with regard to the Iowa straw poll suggests the big stake Iowa Republicans, and Democrats for that matter, too, have in maintaining Iowa's first-in-the-nation status.
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