Carroll County as a bellwether

CARROLL — With rich Catholic and Democratic traditions, but growing social conservative and evangelical demographics, Carroll County, the economic hub of west-central Iowa, can be considered something of a bellwether for the Hawkeye State in today’s election.

As of last Friday, Carroll County had 14,969 registered voters: 5,310 Democrats, 3,155 Republicans, 6,499 no party voters, and five others.

How the no party voters break here could say a lot about the state of the race across Iowa, although with an economy that has so far avoided the worst of the nation’s economic crisis, voters here may be more persuaded by social issues — as the many letters to the editor in the Carroll Daily Times Herald dealing with the issue of abortion show.

Some factors to consider:

While it is historically Democratic, Carroll County now has two Republican state legislators running unopposed.

In terms of sheer logistics, or boots-on-the-ground campaigning, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is overwhelming Republican John McCain.

Obama has an office here and has had staff in place dating back well before the caucuses. Additionally, Obama campaigned in Carroll twice, just after Labor Day 2007 as the caucus season heated up and in the final days after Christmas.

Obama, who pulled crowds of more than 600 people in each of two visits here, turned that enthusiasm into living and breathing Iowa caucuses support in capturing Carroll County with 35 percent of the delegates.

McCain never visited Carroll although highly popular (and unopposed) State Rep. Rod Roberts, R-Carroll, was an early supporter of McCain who stuck with the Arizona senator even as the campaign struggled in Iowa.

With Obama bringing new voters, and a well-oiled campaign organization, into the process, history may be out the window.

That said, Carroll County will be watched closely because it went to Obama in the Iowa caucuses and to President George W. Bush in the last two general elections — 55 percent to 45 percent for Sen. John Kerry in 2004.

In 2004, the president’s positioning on national security issues and abortion factored heavily into his overwhelming victory in Carroll County, local supporters said then.

“Carroll County is no longer a Democratic County,” said former Republican lieutenant governor Art Neu the day after the 2004 election. “People may still register Democratic out of force of habit.”

Added then Carroll County Republican Chairman John Werden, “Maybe in the future you can quit referring to Carroll County as traditionally Democratic. That’s old news.”

Prior to 2000 Democrats racked up some big wins in the county. In 1960 John F. Kennedy won with 60 percent of the vote in Carroll County, beating Richard Nixon.

Four years later, President Lyndon Johnson walloped Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater, 76 percent to 23 percent in Carroll County.

During the Iowa caucuses, the eyes of much of the world were on Carroll, and for that reason alone, the race here is seen as revealing.

A British television crew from Sky News filmed a segment on in the caucus activity here on Adams Street downtown.

Sirius Satellite Radio did a live interview from Carroll and the Washington Post and Associated Press have frequently filed stories with a Carroll dateline.

“With 25-plus appearances by the candidates, three campaign headquarters and numerous other visits, it’s no wonder that as caucuses come to culmination, Carroll will be a very important hub,” said Jim Gossett, executive director of the Carroll Area Development Corp.

No matter the outcome, Carroll Countians can’t claim they were uninformed. The county had 26 presidential candidate visits in the 2008 cycle — showing that the campaigns saw the area as valuable political turf.