
Gov. Sarah Palin
ANALYSIS
While being careful to tell us up front that he thinks the question is a bit premature, Republican David Oman, a key figure in the last two GOP gubernatorial administrations in Iowa, says Sarah Palin has the makings of a frontrunner in the 2012 Iowa caucuses.
“Clearly, she has connected with people in the Republican base and, if the ticket is not successful next month, people will encourage her to aim for the brass ring in four years,” Oman tells us. “After one campaign stop in Iowa, it is too soon to measure her standing in this state, but it would be fair to say Republicans here would welcome learning more and meeting her. The retail nature of caucus politics would play to one of Gov. Palin’s strength –an energetic personality.”
Oman quickly notes that “very few people are looking over the horizon at 2012.”
But there is speculation that the Alaska governor — who already is distancing herself from McCain in some areas — is well-positioned for Iowa in 2012.
Whether she would make a competent president is a different thing altogether — and a seriously debatable point in 2008.
In the universe of Republicans, she is the only star with any true shine — although a meteoric rise from another little-known candidate can’t be ruled out over the next few years. And depending on economic fortunes, Iowa Republicans, who for months flirted with Mitt Romney, may be ready for a known candidate with some burnished business credentials.
Of all the candidates in the scrum for 2012 (assuming John McCain loses) Palin would have the most appeal with the people that matter in the Iowa caucuses.
She has all the assets that can’t be taught — the charisma (at least the sort that appeals to the Christian right) and stump-speaking skills.
Iowa is a state of small towns, and people in these communities increasingly see divisions based in rural-urban terms more than anything because modernity is literally swallowing once-thriving farm towns.
Her small-towns-folks-are-better-Americans speech is a brilliant appetizer for Iowa 2012. Palin speaks to a key segment (in terms of voting) of small towns in the same way Barack Obama appeals to many constituencies — including rural folk (as the Iowa caucuses proved)..
Moreover, the life of Iowa communities is the family. The Hawkeye State, and in particular its rural parts, is not a friendly places for singles — unless they are widowed in nursing homes. Palin’s appeal to those who want to see their candidates as they would like to see themselves — with kids and family in full-bloom — is unrivaled. Keep this in mind: Iowa is a state in which many families own more than one crockpot. It doesn’t get more family values than crockpots.
Palin has some other factors working for her in 2012.
Tony Harnden, the U.S. editor of London’s Telegraph newspaper, refers to Palin as the John Edwards of 2012.
Call her the John Edwards of 2008 – an attractive, well-groomed vice-presidential candidate with a popular spouse, pretty hair and a tanning bed and who shows little loyalty to the top of the ticket. Sarah Palin is clearly looking beyond this election, which most Republicans privately concede John McCain will probably lose, and positioning herself for a possible White House run next time. Edwards did the same thing to John Kerry in 2004.
Mitt Littman at The Huffington Post gets right to the point saying, “Iowa, here she comes.”
It’s a pretty jarring sight. But even though not every right-wing audience reacts to each part of Palin’s script with the same enthusiasm, one thing is clear: the far right really likes Palin. And let there be no doubt about this: in 2012, Sarah Palin does not want to debate VP Joe Biden. She wants to debate President Obama. She wants to be the Republican Party nominee for President.
Now, many of you reading this blog just threw up on the computer screen, so please, take a moment to clean up. You are saying to no one, “That’s insane! She’s not competent!” I am not here to remark on the sanity of Palin’s plans. I’m not saying she will be the nominee in 2012. I am saying that she will run. She may be one of those people who gets two percent of the vote in Iowa, and quits the race. Or, she may fare better. Mike Huckabee won Iowa, let’s recall. While recently voted the Funniest Celebrity in Washington, D.C., Mr. Huckabee, a charming guy, is not on the same page as I am in regards to policy and whether or not we roamed the earth with the T-Rex. Sarah Palin is already adored by the religious right; Iowa, here she comes!