
photo by Dave Davidson, www.TEApublican.com
Democratic U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell’s 3rd District has often been eyed by Republicans as a possible pick up, and according to a poll conducted on behalf of a GOP-friendly group, the 14-year incumbent heads into the general election behind his opponent.
In the poll, Republican challenger Brad Zaun leads Boswell, 47-37 percent. The poll sampled 400 likely voters, and had a +/- 4.9 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted Aug. 16-18, finishing one day before news broke of Zaun being ordered by West Des Moines police in 2001 to stay away from a former girlfriend who had accused him of harassing her. Zaun didn’t dispute the police account of the event.
American Action Fund, a group founded by former U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman of Minnesota, commissioned the survey. The organization is explicitly supportive of conservative causes, so their association with the poll indicates that the numbers may have a Republican tilt.
Boswell campaign manager Grant Woodard dismissed the poll.
“Brad Zaun’s campaign is a one-trick pony – shell out dollars to Republican Party attack groups in the hope to generate some kind of news coverage,” Woodard said in a statement to The Iowa Independent. “The demographics used in the poll don’t match up with the 3rd District and aren’t reflective of the current race. Even if you take the results at face value, the poll ended before the Register uncovered Sen. Zaun’s sordid past or before Iowans learned of his dismissive and out-of-touch statements on Iowa’s biofuels industry. This is another attempt by the Republican attack machine to create a news story where there isn’t in order to avoid having to offer real solutions to the challenges facing Iowa.”
Other numbers in the poll give mixed results for Boswell. Zaun is still unknown to 29 percent of the district, and Boswell has a higher favorable rating, with 46 percent of likely voters approving of the incumbent, compared to 36 percent for his challenger. But Zaun trumps Boswell with far lower unfavorable numbers, with only 18 percent unfavorable, where Boswell gets 45 percent. Even more troubling for Boswell, 62 percent of those polled said it was “time for someone else” to be elected in the district.
No non-partisan polling firms have surveyed the district yet, but this new poll reinforces numbers from previous Republican-friendly polls. Earlier in August, a Zaun internal poll had the Republican leading the race, 45-38 percent.
The new poll was part of a series conducted for American Action Fund looking at nine Midwestern districts currently held by a Democrat. In six of the races polled, the Republican challenger had the lead. Starting the general election season behind in districts like Boswell’s should prove especially troubling to the Democrats’ hopes of maintaining the House. Unlike the wave of Democratic representatives elected in 2006, Boswell’s seat has been in Democratic hands since 1996. Though the district has been considered a swing district at times in the past, Boswell defeated his opponent by 14 points in 2008.