A study released Tuesday afternoon indicates that the polling firm Research 2000 may have fabricated their polling results. Daily Kos had contracted Research 2000 to conduct weekly polls for their website, but an outside statistical review published by the liberal website shows highly improbable results.
Kos founder Markos Moulitsas plans on suing Research 2000 over the allegations.
The questions on the reliability of Research 2000 hit close to home for Iowa, as Des Moines CBS affiliate KCCI-TV had employed Research 2000 for their polling. KCCI’s polls had the race for U.S. Senate in Iowa, between Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley and his Democratic opponent, Des Moines attorney Roxanne Conlin, much closer than other polling firms had found. Earlier this month KCCI had Grassley up by only 8 percent, giving state Democrats hope that the longtime incumbent was vulnerable. Other polls have not shown the same competitive race, so with Research 2000’s results thrown into question, Grassley’s re-election looks more secure.
Both the Cook Report and CQ rank Grassley’s seat as likely Republican. In Rasmussen’s last look at the race, Grassley led Conlin by 17 points.
Research 2000 President Del Ali told TPM Muckraker in an e-mail that he would refer all questions to his lawyer but added, “I will tell you unequivocally that we conducted EVERY poll properly for the Daily Kos.”
The Iowa Independent has reported on several Research 2000 polls in the past, though not on the weekly tracking polls that were the subject of the statistician’s report. An editor’s note has been added to those stories indicating the questions surrounding Research 2000′s methods.