Wednesday was a difficult day for The American Independent News Network, which is the larger entity that operates The Iowa Independent. Our chief executive and founder announced two of our sister sites would close and their content would be moved to The American Independent.
A recently introduced bill could have far-reaching impact on the U.S. sugar industry, including American Crystal Sugar, a farmer-owned cooperative that locked out 1,300 Midwest workers on Aug. 1.
The chairman for Herman Cain’s Iowa effort says the campaign “relied more on the word of farmers than Washington regulators” in deciding to run an ad containing claims the Environmental Protection Agency says are false.
The Iowa Senate will remain under the control of a slim 26-25 Democratic majority when it reconvenes in January 2012.
Traders using the Iowa Electronic Markets to predict the alignment of the U.S. Congress following the 2010 midterm elections believe Democratic fortunes are waning.
When the Congressional Control Market opened last fall, roughly 80 percent of traders believed that Democrats would maintain control of the U.S. Congress following the 2010 midterm elections. In May, just six months prior to the general election, the markets were still predicting that Democrats would control both chambers, but with diminished majorities.
At the start of Tuesday, the prices of a Democratic House-Senate contract were roughly 52 cents, which means that traders believed there was a 52 percent probability that Democrats would hold both chambers in the next Congress. That figure has spiraled downward throughout the day, with the current average price by Wednesday morning at 49.5 cents.
It appears to be the first time since the market opened in late November 2009 that traders are not trading Democratic control of both chambers above 50 cents.
The trading trend on the IEM appears to be toward a Republican-held U.S. House and a Democratic-held U.S. Senate. The price of that contract was trading at 28.7 cents in early May, but is currently trading at 38.8 cents after a nearly steady rise throughout the past two months.
Traders are paying nearly equal amounts for contracts related to Democratic control of the U.S. House. The average contract price paid for Democrats holding a majority is 51.6 cents, while the average contract prices for a Democratic loss is 48 cents. A Democratically controlled Senate remains a strong possibility, according to traders, who are paying roughly 86 cents for that contract.
Traders currently see less than a 1 percent chance that Republicans will control both chambers after the midterm elections.
The real-money futures market is operated by faculty at the University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business as part of its research and training mission, and is one of the oldest and most revered in the nation. Begun in 1988, the IEM has achieved an impressive prediction record, substantially superior to alternative mechanisms such as opinion polls.
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