Saving Vander Plaats’ bid for governor — Has Chuck Norris met his match?

Throughout his gubernatorial campaign, Bob Vander Plaats has been optimistic about his standing in the Republican field — which includes former Gov. Terry Branstad and state Rep. Rod Roberts — sometimes saying he was the front-runner for the nomination.

However, polling data released earlier this week makes it difficult for the Sioux City Republican to dodge his underdog status. Vander Plaats’ campaign for governor has taken on a new tone as he tries to rally the Republican base days before the June 8 primary: He still insists he’ll win, but now admits he’s not the favorite.

“I think Iowa will view it as an upset and I think the nation will view it as an upset, but for us our strategy will have worked — it will have worked to perfection,” Vander Plaats told The Iowa Independent after a campaign event in Cedar Rapids on Friday. The politician was joined by conservative activist and action star Chuck Norris.

That upset will require overcoming a projected 15 point deficit, according to Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina-based firm which has conducted a handful of surveys about Iowa races in the last week. Closing that gap relies on an important presumption: Vander Plaats supporters are the kind who turn out to vote in primaries.

“We know our people are going out to vote. We know our people are taking their friends and their family out to vote,” he said in an interview. “Our people would crawl over broken glass to go vote on Tuesday … We’ll just have to see if that kind of motivation exists in Branstad’s camp. I, quite frankly, I don’t think it does.”

To reinforce the point, Vander Plaats brought some muscle.

“When you go to vote on Tuesday for Bob, I want you to take your friends, your neighbors, anyone you can find on the street, just drag ‘em along,” martial arts star Norris said. “Whatever it takes, we’ve got to get this man elected.”

The usually calm and well-spoke Vander Plaats was fiery on Friday night. He reiterated his distaste for federal involvement in education, his support for legal immigration and his commitment to ending same-sex marriage on his first day in office.

“Not on day two, not on day three, not ‘on some distant day in the future, I need to think about it.’  On day one, I will issue an executive order that places a stall on same-sex marriages until the people of Iowa have the right to vote on that issue,” he told the crowd, garnering an uproar.

Data shows name-recognition is a high hurdle for Vander Plaats just a few days out from primary day. The Public Policy Polling survey revealed 34 percent of respondents had “no opinion” of the gubernatorial candidate. In contrast, only about 20 percent of the same group had “no opinion” of Branstad. Among voters who know who Vander Plaats is, he leads Branstad by about 5 points.

A similar challenge faced presidential contender Mike Huckabee two years ago. The Arkansas governor trailed Mitt Romney — predicted by many to win the Republican nomination in 2008 — in name recognition and cash. A high-profile endorsement from Norris brought Huckabee plenty of attention and likely contributed to his Iowa caucus victory.

Vander Plaats and Norris bank on that same strategy paying off this year in Iowa.

“On the news today, they kept saying, ‘How come you’re here campaigning for Bob Vander Plaats?’” Norris said. “And I said, ‘Well, two years ago, I was in Iowa campaigning for Mike Huckabee. … While I was here, I had the opportunity to meet Bob and I saw a lot of the same qualities in Bob Vander Plaats as I saw in Mike Huckabee.”

A couple other high-profile endorsements are at play in this election as well. Focus on the Family founder James Dobson also supports Vander Plaats while 2008 Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin has endorsed Branstad.

Whether or not that star power will coax voters into casting ballots isn’t clear. Norris’ help resulted in limited success for Huckabee in 2008, but Norris has a hit-or-miss track record since.

After President Barack Obama drew numerous celebrity endorsements during his presidential bid, a handful of political scientists across the country delved into the question of whether those glitzy marks of approval held weight among voters.

A study released earlier this year from North Carolina State University, for instance, suggests celebrity endorsements offer office-seekers minimal benefit and can sometimes damage a campaign among young voters.

However, the same study also hints at a celebrity endorsement’s ability to motivate those who already support the candidate.

“Are you more likely to attend a political event if the candidate is slated to appear by him or herself, or if the candidate is going to appear with Madonna?” said Michael Cobb, a co-author of the North Carolina State study.

But another study, released two years ago by researchers at University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, suggests celebrity support — like Oprah Winfrey’s favor of Obama in 2008 — might be more powerful because they often garner plenty of media attention.

“Reading about the endorsement did lead participants to see Obama as more likely to win the nomination and to say that they would be more likely to vote for him,” the authors wrote.