Is Rod Roberts running for lieutenant governor?

Polling released this week makes it appear unlikely Rod Roberts will take the Republican nomination for governor next week. Just 13 percent of likely Republican voters surveyed said they’re likely to vote for Roberts.

State Rep. Rod Roberts (photo by Dave Davidson, www.TEApublican.com)

However, his long-shot bid at the nomination doesn’t mean Iowa voters won’t see the Republican from Carroll on the ballot in November. Roberts’ gentle presentation and no-attack campaign style have led to speculation Roberts has his sights set on being lieutenant governor for the GOP’s eventual nominee.

While he can’t be ruled out of the gubernatorial race altogether, his poor polling numbers reinforce the idea that Roberts is the underdog to fellow Republicans Terry Branstad and Bob Vander Plaats.

“Almost everyone I know believes Roberts is running to be Branstad’s lieutenant governor, even a Roberts supporter told me that,” Christian radio host Steve Deace told The Iowa Independent.

Roberts dismisses the idea, insisting he’s all-in on pursuing the governorship.

“I think that’s all premature,” he said during a phone interview. “All three of us are working very hard to win the primary election. I have been in this to win from the very beginning and I believe I have a good opportunity to be the surprise on June 8. So all my time, energy, and focus has been to work hard and meet as many people as I can and win this primary. So I really have never really considered the other outcomes.”

Still, Roberts appears to be keeping himself in good standing with both his opponents’ camps. Figuratively and literally, Roberts has stood by as Vander Plaats has attacked Branstad’s tax record or social credentials and while Branstad shakes his head and refutes the attacks.

“Roberts probably realizes getting nasty isn’t going to help him any. If he does have any particular interest in being a lieutenant governor, then staying in the race and providing additional issues to talk about and kind of continuing to talk about that are important to him doesn’t really hurt the other candidates,” said Tim Hagle, an associate political science professor at the University of Iowa.

In the last gubernatorial debate, Roberts even seemed to help one of his opponents. When given the opportunity to ask another candidate a question, Roberts turned over a question on taxes to Branstad. Instead of pressing the former governor about his tax record like Vander Plaats has done, he gave Branstad an opportunity to restate his campaign pledge to not increase taxes.

Roberts: … I have made a promise on the campaign trail to serve as governor and continue that fight to keep taxes lower. So what I would like to ask, since I’ve made that promise that in my four years I will not raise taxes, will you join me in that pledge to not raise taxes if you become governor?

Branstad: I not only will join you in that pledge, I plan to reduce taxes and make Iowa more competitive. I did that when I was governor before. … That’s why I received the endorsement of Iowans for Tax Relief because I’m a proven tax cutter. I plan to reduce taxes more and make Iowa more competitive for jobs.

Roberts: I think it’s very important that Iowans have some sense that a Republican governor would take a very different approach to leadership. Cutting taxes will stimulate our economy. It’s also important that dealing with our budget challenge, we reduce the impulse to have to raise taxes to generate new revenue to provide more government services. …

Branstad reciprocated, asking Roberts a question about which lawmaker he has most admired during his time in the General Assembly. The less-than-aggressive question could be a signal Branstad is being careful not to damage a prospective running mate.

There’s more evidence of favorable ties between Branstad and Roberts. Branstad and Robert Ray, another former Republican governor, were early proponents of a Roberts gubernatorial bid, even before Branstad was a serious prospect for the 2010 race.

As nominees, both Branstad and Vader Plaats could benefit from having Roberts as a running mate.

Rod Roberts, left, speaks with former Gov. Terry Branstad.

For Branstad, Roberts’ socially conservative résumé could quell critical questions from the right about the former governor’s positions. The candidate has been called out for running with Joy Corning — a supporter of both gay marriage and abortion rights — in 1990 and 1994, for expanding gambling as governor, and for not committing to work towards a ban on adoption by same-sex couples.

However, Deace said he’s skeptical about Branstad making moves to attract that voting bloc.

“I think Branstad has made it pretty clear he’s not interested in reaching out to Christian and constitutional conservatives on any level,” he said.

Still, another one of Roberts’ qualities could be attractive to a Branstad campaign. Roberts is about 10 years younger than Branstad. Hagle points out politicians often seek running mates who could be successors.

“Branstad’s in his 60′s, so he maybe one, maybe two terms but you kind of want to look ahead,” Hagle said. “Choosing someone who would basically be in training for his own shot somewhere down the road would certainly be a good thing.”

Branstad has already alluded to this criteria for picking a running mate.

“I want to choose somebody who I think can be the next governor,” Branstad said at the last gubernatorial debate.

For Vander Plaats, who has never held political office, Roberts would bring legislative expertise. Some observers have said a Vander Plaats administration would need someone with governing experience in order to be effective.

Vander Plaats himself has echoed that sentiment.

“Whether it’s a running mate I’m looking for or department heads I’m looking for, they’re going to share my core values and convictions, but they will have different experiences and different expertise. I don’t want clones of Bob Vander Plaats,” the Sioux City Republican said.

Most, however, believe state Rep. Jodi Tymeson, R-Winterset, will be Vander Plaats’ choice. She chose not to run for re-election this year to serve as the Vander Plaats 2010 campaign chair.

For either of the front-runners, Roberts would be a safe pick for the General Election, unlikely to hurt the ticket.

“Roberts is sort of a clean slate,” Democratic strategist Jeff Link told the Iowa Independent last month. “He has no baggage.”

And even if the running mate spot isn’t Roberts’ goal, it seems unlikely he’ll turn it down if offered. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the self-proclaimed “unifying candidate” would snub an opportunity to help the Republican ticket.

“I think it’s important that the three of us agree even before the election that whoever wins this primary has to have the support of the other two,” Roberts said. “I will support the nominee and do all I can to help the nominee to succeed in November.”