Former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., and former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., are the front-runners in Iowa to win their respective party’s caucuses in a new poll released Monday by Public Policy Polling (PPP), based in North Carolina.
Edwards leads all Democrats at 31 percent with Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama tied for second place with 17 percent. Romney leads all Republicans with 31 percent with former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson in second with 15 percent, beating out former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain. Both McCain and Giuliani polled in the single digits.
The results of the PPP surveys seem to correspond with recent numbers released by Selzer and Co., the firm which conducts the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll. PPP conducts their surveys via IVR, or interactive voice response. No actual questions are asked by a person; instead a recording plays, and the answers provided by the respondent make up the survey results.
The most recent Iowa Poll showed Edwards leading all Democrats with 29 percent, while Romney led all Republicans with 30 percent. Fred Thompson was not included in the Iowa Poll, but his surge to 15 percent in the PPP survey shows that he can be a viable candidate in the Iowa Republican Straw Poll come August. Thompson recently confirmed he would be entering the Republican field, and it was reported last week that Thompson’s aides have already contacted state Republican officials about plans to organize a caucus staff.
The rest of the polling revealed that New Mexico Democrat Bill Richardson is continuing to strengthen his support in Iowa, polling at 10 percent. All other Democratic candidates were under 5 percent, and those selecting “undecided” stood at 17 percent.
On the Republican side, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich polled at third place with 10 percent. Gingrich has yet to declare his candidacy but has speculated he may jump into the race later on this year. McCain polled at 9 percent and Giuliani polled at 8 percent. Of the Republican options, 19 percent said they supported another candidate, and 8 percent were undecided.
The low numbers for McCain and Giuliani are contrary to other results seen nationally, where both candidates have seen strong support. However, both candidates have appeared to be weaker in Iowa than in other parts of the country. Speculation continues to soar over whether or not Giuliani will actually compete in the August straw poll, with his staff saying a decision will come sometime in the middle of this month.
PPP polled 1,238 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 774 likely Republican caucus-goers. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent and +/- 3.5 percent, respectively.