Caucuses could have big impact on 2010 campaign

Saturday’s caucuses won’t garner the same media attention they did in 2008, when the world looked on as Iowans cast the first votes of an historic presidential election.

But the typically low-turnout caucuses held during non-presidential years still play a major role in Iowa politics. And depending on the outcome of June’s primaries, what happens on Saturday could have a huge impact on national politics as well.

“If campaigns aren’t paying attention to the caucuses they are making a mistake,” said Tim Hagle, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa and a former member of the Johnson Country Republican Central Committee.

While the caucuses are historically dominated by each party’s base – liberals for Democrats and religious conservatives for Republicans – the emergence of the Tea Party movement could be the great unknown in 2010. At least one candidate with strong ties to the movement is working to turn supporters out for the usually quiet, off-year caucuses.

Even though this year’s caucus attendees won’t be choosing the next president, they will start the process of shaping the state party platforms and will choose county convention delegates. Those delegates will go on to the various district conventions in May, and eventually the state convention in June.

That’s important, because if no candidate in an Iowa primary election receives at least 35 percent of the vote, those delegates decide who will be the party’s nominee.

“If you look at the Republican gubernatorial primary, with four candidates running, and the Republican 3rd District [Congressional] primary with five candidates, there is a chance these races will ultimately be decided at the party convention by the delegates chosen on Saturday,” said Dennis Goldford, a professor of political science at Drake University in Des Moines.

Hagle said most campaigns are already organizing their supporters to turn out and attempt to become delegates to the conventions.

“The convention scenario is a plan B, a failsafe, for campaigns,” he said. “They would much rather win in June, and that’s the ultimate goal, but you can’t ignore the possibility.”

Ryan Rhodes, who serves as political director for Republican Dave Funk’s campaign to unseat U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell in Iowa’s 3^rd District, said because of the crowded primary field, the campaign is asking supporters to turn out in big numbers for the caucus.

“We want to see a great caucus turnout and afterward we will be competing for each and every vote,” said Rhodes, who is also Iowa chairman of the Tea Party Patriots. “If this goes to convention we will be prepared but we feel this will be decided on June 8 after an exciting primary.”

Funk, a retired pilot, is facing physician Patrick Bertroche, former Iowa State University wrestling coach Jim Gibbons, retired architect Mark Rees and state Sen. Brad Zaun for the party’s nomination.

Lessons of history

Republicans don’t have to look too far back into history to learn the lesson of how important the caucuses can be. U.S. Rep. Steve King, R-Kiron, is living proof.

In 2002, King and three other candidates faced off for the 5^th District Congressional seat, and when no one reached the 35 percent mark the race went to a special district convention.

The now four-term congressman narrowly defeated Iowa House Speaker Brent Siegrist 272 to 253 on the third ballot.

Also in 2002, GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Gross narrowly avoided convention in a three-way primary. He won with 36 percent of the vote.

In 2006, Democrats had four candidates for governor going into the caucuses. One of the candidates, Ed Fallon, urged his supporters to turn out in big numbers in order to improve his chances if the race was decided at convention.

The strategy almost paid off, as Gov. Chet Culver garnered 39 percent of the vote, outdistancing Mike Blouin’s 34 percent and Fallon’s 26 percent.

The lesson, Goldford said, is that the caucuses matter.

“These are typically low-turnout events,” Goldford said. “So it doesn’t take a lot of people to make a big difference.”

And the people who typically turn out are the “diehards,” Hagle said.

“These events are usually dominated by those that are more ideologically driven,” he said. “They tend to have a bigger stake in these matters.”

For Republicans, who are dealing with far more competitive primaries this year than Democrats, that means delegates will likely be much more conservative than the general populace, Goldford said, a factor that will help candidates like Bob Vander Plaats.

“For Vander Plaats, who is the candidate of the social and religious conservatives, it really could become his strategy to simply hold [Terry] Branstad to under 35 percent,” he said. “He is the candidate likely to win if it goes to convention. So, in that sense, it is Branstad against the field.”

Hagle said Vander Plaats and Branstad are surely organizing supporters to turn out on Saturday. As for the gubernatorial campaigns of state Reps. Rod Roberts and Chris Rants, they may not have the money and organization to mount an effective caucus strategy.

And while Branstad may have much more money than Vander Plaats, the caucuses are usually more about fervor than fundraising.

“The race between Vander Plaats and Branstad is viewed by many as a struggle for the future of the party,” he said. “So that could motivate people to turn out in larger numbers than previous years.”

But for the race to come down to convention, one or both of the race’s other candidates must garner a higher percentage of the vote than currently expected, Goldford said, at least in the double digits.

On the congressional side, the convention scenario would seem to work out best for candidates like Funk in the 3^rd District, who claims support from many of the Tea Party activists who turned out in record numbers last summer to protest health care reform. In the 2^nd District GOP primary, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Christopher Reed and Steve Rathje are facing off for the right to take on U.S. Rep. Dave Loebsack.

Reed is considered the candidate with the most to gain from a convention scenario, given his campaign’s focus on his conservative credentials and Miller-Meeks’ past problems with the party’s anti-abortion base.

Dominance of the base

When some Republicans complain about the influence social and religious conservatives have in the state party, they are really complaining about the caucus process, Goldford said.

“Those are the folks who turn out and do the work at the caucuses,” he said. “They stay until the bitter end and work on the party platform. They show up to be precinct delegates. That’s why they are influential.”

Former Lt. Gov. Joy Corning, who served under Branstad, told the Omaha World-Herald that she has been lobbying more moderate Republicans to show up at the caucuses to try to exert influence over county delegates and the party’s platform.

Hagle, who has participated in numerous caucuses in Johnson County, said many times there are more delegate spots open than people interested in running.

“Each precinct gets a certain number of delegates to the county convention based on the number of votes cast for governor the previous election,” he said. “Sometimes you don’t have enough people, and everyone who wants to be a delegate gets to be a delegate.”

If there are more candidates than seats at the convention, the caucuses will hold elections, and each candidate will give a speech on why they should be chosen.

“That’s when you might begin to see which campaign turned out their supporters,” Hagle said. “They may say ‘vote for me, I’m a Branstad supporter.’ But otherwise, there is really no way of knowing, at least initially, who succeeded in positioning themselves for the convention.”

“It really is grassroots democracy,” Hagle said.