ANALYSIS: Back in Des Moines, Obama Marks Progress in Two Contests at Once

When Sen. Barack Obama returned to Des Moines for his primary night speech Tuesday, he hearkened back to the days when his nomination was not inevitable while emphasizing the inevitability of his victory over Democratic rival Sen. Hillary Clinton.  He also showed strength against the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain.In his 20-minute speech, Obama declared victory over Clinton in the contest for elected delegates to the Democratic National Convention. The lead puts his campaign “within reach of the Democratic nomination for president of the United States,” he said.

He also credited Iowa for his success. “The skeptics predicted we wouldn’t get very far. The cynics dismissed us as a lot of hype and a little too much hope. And by the fall, the pundits in Washington had all but counted us out. But the people of Iowa had a different idea,” he said.

“You came out on a cold winter’s night in numbers that this country has never seen, and you stood for change. And because you did, a few more stood up,” he continued, echoing a refrain familiar to his Iowa supporters. “And then a few thousand stood up. And then a few million stood up.”

Iowa has become a handy instrument in Obama’s rhetorical toolbox since Jan. 3, a date often cited to prove that the Illinois senator can succeed among working-class white voters. Obama has also used our state to remind Americans of the days when winning was a more decisive event — and when Obama was the one doing it the best.

Tuesday night, Iowa functioned as Obama’s political cover, allowing him to edge closer to declaring victory while reminding voters that what seems inevitable now is the reverse of what we expected to happen a year ago. Clinton seemed like the entitled candidate then, and it was Iowa’s backlash against perceived inevitability that precipitated Obama’s meteoric rise.

Obama connects and resonates as an anti-establishment figure, but his newfound front-runner position in the Democratic Party has enabled Clinton to define herself as the true insurgent candidate over the past month. Tuesday’s Iowa backdrop reminded commentators, TV viewers, and unpledged delegates alike of what the campaign was like before Obama was the presumptive Democratic nominee, and it makes a backlash against Obama’s inevitability less likely.

But Iowa’s value is not merely symbolic. Our state could prove almost as important to Obama in November as it was in January. While most head-to-head polls show Obama leading McCain by a small margin here, the Arizona senator has shown signs that he intends to compete for our seven electoral delegates.

He may want to rethink his plan.

About 7,000 people turned out to hear Obama speak Tuesday night. Two thousand waited in line before the gates opened — nearly two hours before the Obama family took the stage.

McCain, who clinched the Republican Party’s presidential nomination months ago, drew only 250 people to a midday appearance in Des Moines weeks earlier.

Obama remained on message in his speech, emphasizing his elected delegate majority, the importance of Iowa in his meteoric rise, and changes in McCain’s political positions. McCain’s planned health care message was overshadowed in both local and national press by the senator’s abrupt excoriation of the newly negotiated Farm Bill during his first minute on stage.

Obama bested both Clinton and McCain Tuesday, and Iowa got another few minutes in the sun.