Open questions about the HD90 special election

A special election has been scheduled for September 1 in Iowa House District 90, which spans Van Buren County and parts of Jefferson and Wapello counties. Democrat Curt Hanson and Republican Stephen Burgmeier are vying to replace state Rep. John Whitaker, who has been appointed to a USDA job.

While most state legislative races are decided largely on the basis of personalities, reputations, and name identification, this one could be close enough for other political factors to tip the scale in one direction or the other. Here are a few open questions that could define how the HD90 campaign fits into the broader political picture:

Iowa House District 90 (Source: www.legis.state.ia.us)

Which party has momentum right now? If the GOP senses an opportunity to change the current political narrative to prove that its candidates are gaining traction statewide, they could divert more resources to Burgmeier. Likewise, if Democrats or their allies decide that their whole agenda, not merely one house district, is at stake, the cash could start piling up.

Will state Rep. Kerry Burt’s scandals hurt Hanson? It seems unlikely, but now that there’s video of Burt’s arrest on OWI charges during this year’s legislative session, the question is worth asking. Sure, running a last-minute ad connecting that scandal (or the other Burt scandal) to other House Democrats could easily backfire, but a campaign that’s down five points a week before election day might be willing to trot it out.

How healthy is the relationship between House Democrats and the labor movement? Though HD90 does not have a huge labor presence, statewide labor groups will have to decide whether to divert resources to the race like they usually do for Democratic candidates. But after a second disappointing legislative session in which Democrats failed to deliver on key labor priorities, they may not be in such a helpful mood.

Which party is at fault for the struggling economy? Without an incumbent on the ballot, there is no obvious person for voters to blame for their problems — not that Whitaker’s (virtually uncontested) 2008 campaign had much of a problem with that. But now that Democrats control federal and state government, conventional wisdom says they could find themselves where the GOP found itself in 2008. That could hurt Hanson, or, if voters still blame the GOP for lingering economic woes, it could hurt Burgmeier.

Which party has a stronger campaign apparatus in place between election years? Though state Rep. Chris Rants (R-Sioux City) was ousted as minority leader after last year’s election, much of the infrastructure he built to support House Republican campaigns has reportedly remained in place. The House Democrats’ Truman Fund maintains a staff in between elections, as well. If one side was able to mobilize its operation faster than the other side, they would get a head start on fundraising, voter contacts, and absentee ballot requests that could make the difference in a close race. (If it’s any indication, Democrats announced their candidate before Republicans, but both parties had announcements ready pretty quickly.)

We don’t yet know the answers to these questions, and as I said at the beginning, they may not even matter if one candidate runs away with the race early. But if it’s close, any one of them could make the difference.