We need a unifier, not a whiner.  Obama is the only candidate who members of the other party don't hate.  He is the only unifier.  United we stand.  Divided we fall. 

It doesn't matter what the platform of any politician is, if the other side won't respect them nothing will get done.  There can be no change.  Pure steamrollering won't accomplish any change.  Clinton will continue the policies of the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton cycle.  It is too risky to continue these policies because they are not bringing us good results.

The DMR model suggests that 60 percent of Democratic caucus attendees, or about 120,000, would be people who have never caucused before.

The same model suggests that 80,000 people would be repeat caucus-goers.

So you are suggesting that one-third of people who caucused in 2004 will not be there? Sure, some have died, some have moved out of Iowa, and some may be out of town, but I am making voter contacts every day. The vast majority of people who caucused in 2004 will caucus again.

To believe that 60 percent of caucus-goers will be first-timers, you have to believe in a massive record-breaking turnout.

It's more realistic to expect turnout will be in the 150,000 range. The DMR is telling us that 90,000 of those people would be people who've never caucused before, and just 60,000 would be people who have attended a caucus before. Not a chance.

the poll isn't suggesting that people who caucused in 2004 aren't going to caucus in 2008, but rather a large wave of first-timers will caucus. Believe it or not, at some point people go for the first time…happens every time.

At least one of those is an outlier, and probably both are, given the number of other polls showing all three candidates within the margin of error.

Two things jumped out at me regarding the DMR poll. One, it predicts that 60 percent of Democratic caucus-goers will be first-timers. I find that simply impossible to believe. I've been working my precinct, where we had 175 at the 2004 caucus. I have found very, very few people who attended in 2004 and do not plan to caucus again.

If 60 percent of the caucus-goers are new, that would suggest a turnout in my precinct of at least 300 people. Seems impossible.

Also, the DMR projects that 40 percent of Democratic caucus-goers will be independents who changed their registration and 5 percent will be Republicans who changed their registration. In 2004 those numbers were 19 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

Obama's lead comes entirely from an assumed unprecedented turnout of first-time caucus-goers, independents and Republicans. I am not buying it, but we'll all find out on Thursday night.

We need a unifier, not a whiner.  Obama is the only candidate who members of the other party don’t hate.  He is the only unifier.  United we stand.  Divided we fall. 

It doesn’t matter what the platform of any politician is, if the other side won’t respect them nothing will get done.  There can be no change.  Pure steamrollering won’t accomplish any change.  Clinton will continue the policies of the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton cycle.  It is too risky to continue these policies because they are not bringing us good results.

The DMR model suggests that 60 percent of Democratic caucus attendees, or about 120,000, would be people who have never caucused before.

The same model suggests that 80,000 people would be repeat caucus-goers.

So you are suggesting that one-third of people who caucused in 2004 will not be there? Sure, some have died, some have moved out of Iowa, and some may be out of town, but I am making voter contacts every day. The vast majority of people who caucused in 2004 will caucus again.

To believe that 60 percent of caucus-goers will be first-timers, you have to believe in a massive record-breaking turnout.

It’s more realistic to expect turnout will be in the 150,000 range. The DMR is telling us that 90,000 of those people would be people who’ve never caucused before, and just 60,000 would be people who have attended a caucus before. Not a chance.