Wednesday was a difficult day for The American Independent News Network, which is the larger entity that operates The Iowa Independent. Our chief executive and founder announced two of our sister sites would close and their content would be moved to The American Independent.
A recently introduced bill could have far-reaching impact on the U.S. sugar industry, including American Crystal Sugar, a farmer-owned cooperative that locked out 1,300 Midwest workers on Aug. 1.
The chairman for Herman Cain’s Iowa effort says the campaign “relied more on the word of farmers than Washington regulators” in deciding to run an ad containing claims the Environmental Protection Agency says are false.
The Iowa Senate will remain under the control of a slim 26-25 Democratic majority when it reconvenes in January 2012.
Just under two weeks away, Iowa’s GOP caucuses promise to be unpredictable and close. In the past week, Gov. Mitt Romney has blunted the rise of Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. Fred Thompson has spent time on the campaign trail, and high-profile endorsements have gone to Romney, Thompson, and Sen. John McCain.
Here, we attempt to answer the question, “If the GOP caucuses were held tonight, how would they result?” These rankings are based on impressions we received from activists, politicos, staff, and caucus-goers around the state along with, at the most basic level, gut feelings and guesses. We hope our power rankings serve as a useful point of reference for our readers who follow the fluctuating poll numbers from day to day.
First Place
Mitt Romney — A few factors have led us to reconsider our ranking of Romney this week. For one, his organization is vastly superior to any of his Republican opponents. And although the electorate is very fragmented, Romney is the closest thing to an “establishment” candidate in the Iowa GOP race. His endorsement from Tancredo has given him an edge over Gov. Mike Huckabee — if not over other candidates like Sen. Fred Thompson — on the make-or-break issue of immigration.
Second Place
Mike Huckabee — Huckabee has won over many evangelicals, but his core organization is still relatively small. He is losing ground on immigration to Romney and Thompson, as the attacks seem to be catching on. Although he could build his organization up enough to win on January 3, the recent polls that show him way ahead of Romney may overstate his lead. In the end, organization will play a major role in deciding the winner.
Third Place
(tie) Ron Paul — Paul’s supporters continue to be the most enthusiastic of any candidate’s. Although we have some misgivings about how he is spending his money in Iowa (and if he is spending much money here at all), he is still poised to surprise some people on caucus night.
(tie) Fred Thompson – Upward Momentum – Thompson’s campaign has been reinvigorated by a strong performance at the most recent debate, the endorsement from western Iowa Rep. Steve King, and a long swing through the state. We still hear stories that he appears unenthusiastic on the campaign trail, but at least he is out there. By next week, we should have a good picture of whether Thompson is really catching on, or whether his apparent rise is just a figment of our imagination.
Fifth Place
John McCain – Upward Momentum — McCain’s support will hit a ceiling long before he makes it into the top two in Iowa, but the fact that nationally he looks like a viable candidate again means his hold-out supporters in Iowa do not feel forced to switch to someone else. And although newspaper endorsements do not always mean much in the GOP caucuses, they cannot hurt.
Sixth Place
Rudy Giuliani — Giuliani shows few signs that he is interested in winning the Iowa Caucuses, and the electability factor, which we perceive as his main advantage here, appears to matter less and less every day.
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