With two very different farm bills coming out of the two houses of Congress, which one is more likely to prevail?
The bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, which basically maintains most of the current crop subsidy system? Or the Senate bill, with its extra boost to nutrition programs and a new $5 billion crop disaster fund?
The answer to those questions may be that both bills must significantly change to ever see the signature of President George W. Bush. On Wednesday, the acting U.S. Secretary of Agriculture renewed a threat of a veto of either of the bills in their current forms.
The differences between the two bills will be hammered out in conference committee in January, and Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, will preside over the process as committee chairman. It's also likely that Rep. Leonard Boswell, D-Iowa, will be tapped to sit on the committee as well.
Iowa Farm Bureau Federation National Policy Advisor Mark Salvador told Iowa Independent Thursday that the Senate bill looks stronger heading into the conference committee.
"I think the Senate's version will probably prevail if a guy had to pick a winner," said Salvador. He explained the fact that the Senate bill managed to pass with 78 votes out of 100 is a sign that Harkin holds the upper hand. The House bill passed with a much smaller margin, garnering 231 votes out of 435. "I think those numbers are very important," said Salvador. "Because the president has threatened to veto both bills. He suggested that if the bill showed up on his desk looking like either one of those versions he would veto it."
Legislators have two choices, said Salvador. Make a bill that the president will sign, or they can try to win a two-thirds majority in both chambers. A "veto-proof majority" may be what is needed to get the farm bill signed into law.
"The magic number is 67 in the Senate, and 291 in the House," he said. "The Senate bill had 78 votes, clearly more than the two-thirds majority. And so as we go to conference, I think the House bill has to move towards the Senate bill if they're going to pick up enough Republican votes to garner that 291 vote majority in the House."