How long before Pawlenty moves south?

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is expected to announce today that he will not seek reelection to a third term, clearing the way for a 2012 presidential campaign that many observers think is already in the works.

Pawlenty, who survived the 2006 campaign cycle as most statewide Republicans around him were losing, presented himself to general election voters as a moderate, independent-thinking politician.  (Progressives in Minnesota argue that the real reason he won that year was that the Democratic gubernatorial ticket was gaffe-prone and unappealing to voters.) He won twice without garnering 50 percent of the vote.

Though Pawlenty’s prospects of winning reelection in 2010 were looking up as Minnesota’s legislative session ended this year, he still plans to unilaterally cut a billion dollars from his state’s budget, and that will make enemies locally.  (It may, however, endear him to national conservative groups, who like politicians who take huge chunks out of state budgets.)  Risking his presidential ambitions on another uncertain gubernatorial campaign, especially in the current economic climate, may not have seemed worth it.

The Minnesota Independent, a Center for Independent Media site, offered this quick recap of the situation last month:

The [Minnesota] budget deficit was initially projected to reach $6.4 billion for the biennium that begins July 1. Disbursements from President Obama’s stimulus package, however, trimmed that figure down to $4.6 billion. The DFL-controlled legislature and Pawlenty then both signed off on additional cuts that cleaved the deficit by roughly another third. Finally Pawlenty used his line-item veto authority to eliminate the state’s General Assistance Medical Program, slicing another $381 million from the budget hole — and knocking more than 30,000 destitute single adults off the health-care rolls.

Pawlenty’s strong-arm tactics haven’t gone unnoticed by national political players. Americans for Tax Reform — arguably Washington’s most zealous anti-tax organization — recently named him a “hero of the taxapayer.”

“I think this was the signal that he’s not running for governor again,” says David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University. “He’s running for national office, or thinks he is.”

But how Pawlenty’s budgetary hardball will play at home is tough to say. The DFL has picked up numerous legislative seats in the last two election cycles and nearly swept the state’s constitutional offices in 2006, with the notable exception of the governorship. Pawlenty’s approval ratings recently have hovered on the wrong side of the 50 percent threshold, typically a sign of vulnerability for an incumbent. And by going it alone on budget cuts, he risks taking the entire blame if popular programs are cut.

Pawlenty has also been a frequent guest on cable news talk shows over the past year, developing a knack for dodging questions about his 2012 plans.  In 2008, he made campaign stops in Iowa to support U.S. Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign and U.S. Rep. Tom Latham’s bid for reelection in Iowa’s 4th Congressional District.

Still, his status among Iowa’s conservative GOP base remains largely unknown.  Some far-right bloggers have tagged him a RINO (a “Republican In Name Only”) for his moderate rhetoric as a statewide candidate in Minnesota, but others see him as his party’s best shot at winning back the battleground states of the Midwest (e.g., Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin) that were competitive in 2000 and 2004, but that President Barack Obama won by significant margins in 2008.

Pawlenty is unlikely to officially announce a presidential campaign soon, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t be start laying the groundwork for his candidacy in a matter of months.  Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney started making calls into Iowa and spreading campaign contributions around well before the 2006 election, helping him to secure endorsements from a significant number of establishment figures in the Iowa GOP well before the 2008 Iowa Caucuses.  If Pawlenty doesn’t start the same process before 2010 heats up, he could miss the boat.  Bowing out of his own reelection bid should give him the flexibility he needs to position himself as a contender.