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A recently introduced bill could have far-reaching impact on the U.S. sugar industry, including American Crystal Sugar, a farmer-owned cooperative that locked out 1,300 Midwest workers on Aug. 1.
The chairman for Herman Cain’s Iowa effort says the campaign “relied more on the word of farmers than Washington regulators” in deciding to run an ad containing claims the Environmental Protection Agency says are false.
The Iowa Senate will remain under the control of a slim 26-25 Democratic majority when it reconvenes in January 2012.
It’s been nearly a month since the Iowa Supreme Court handed down its ruling legalizing same-sex marriage, and the issue continues to dominate headlines and political chatter.
Opponents of the decision have vowed to make it the cornerstone of a 2010 campaign they hope will result in Republicans reclaiming control in Des Moines. But most observers agree that while marriage may be a factor, control of Terrace Hill and the statehouse will largely be decided by one thing: the economy.
“The marriage ruling is going to have a much smaller impact than it normally would because of where our economy is right now,” said Christopher Larimer, professor of political science at the University of Northern Iowa. “If the state budget is a mess and the economy isn’t doing well, that’s going to be what drives people in 2010. If the economy is doing well, I think that will make things easier for the Democrats.”
There is little doubt that for some, mainly social conservatives, the court’s ruling will be a the big issue of next year’s election, said Tim Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa and a former member of the Johnson County Republican Central Committee.
“But the economy affects everybody. Maybe some folks aren’t as interested in the social issues, but when the state is going through tough economic times across the board, from the private sector to the public sector, that affects people more broadly,” Hagle said. “That’s going to be the big issue, unless we get some sort of dramatic turn around in the next 15 months.”
Tim Albrecht has a long career in Iowa Republican politics, serving as communications director for Rep. Christopher Rants during his tenure as House speaker and currently running a conservative news aggregator, TheBeanWalker.com. He said that while it’s true that the marriage issue will fall second to the economy for most voters, the enthusiasm it creates in the GOP base is where the true impact will be felt.
“This will mobilize volunteers,” he said. “It will get them on the phones and knocking on doors. They will provide a lot of the shoe leather. This is where everything comes together. While the economy is first on everybody’s minds, if you don’t have a campaign to turn out that vote, it won’t matter.”
Republicans are enthusiastic about their political fortunes for the first time in a long while, Albrecht said, after a legislative session that saw the GOP successfully fend off pieces of the Democrats’ economic plan, like labor legislation and ending federal deductibility.
“Maybe a voter is upset with the Democrats because of their tax plan,” he said. “Republicans have to get that person out to vote, and the social conservatives of the party are the ones who will be providing the volunteer power to do that.”
How the GOP handles the issue is also important, Hagle said. Polling shows a majority of Iowans oppose same-sex marriage but would support civil unions. If the Republicans seem like they are pushing a message of discrimination, there could be a big voter backlash.
“It’s a fine line between characterizing it as pro-traditional marriage and pro-discrimination,” Hagle said. “I think a lot of people in the middle are kind of live and let live.”
Former GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Gross told The Associated Press that too much focus on same-sex marriage could spell doom for his party’s chances next year.
“For Republicans to win, they need to have a broad agenda,” Gross said. “That issue is not a negative one for Republicans, but if Republicans let this be the only thing they talk about, they won’t be successful in 2010.”
The races that will be most affected by the court’s ruling will be Republican primaries, said Dennis Goldford, a professor of politics at Drake University. Because primaries are dominated by a party’s base, and because social conservatives are the group most upset with the ruling, the issue could ultimately decide Iowa’s Republican gubernatorial nominee.
“The single most passionate group of supporters in the Republican Party are social and religious conservatives,” Goldford said. “For them, politics is not about pragmatics, it’s about what is right and what is moral. That will make life much more difficult for moderates to get elected.”
Albrecht said the outcome of 2010 would also come down to whether his party can overcome years of being outmaneuvered by the Democrats.
“It’s going to take integrated campaigns and efforts unlike social conservatives and Republicans have ever seen before,” he said. “We need to get out of the 1950s in regards to how we run our campaigns.”
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