If you already booked your horse and buggy ride into Des Moines in anticipation of Iowa’s 2011 constitutional convention, you’d be wise to cancel soon.
And, if you are wondering why we haven’t paid much lipservice here to the idea that opponents of same-sex marriage might push for such a convention in 2010 rather than using the normal constitutional amendment process (which would not be resolved until at least 2012), here’s why:
It’s not going to happen.
In 2000, the last time Iowans voted on whether the state should convene a constitutional convention, only about 32 percent supported it. In other words, it lost by nearly 40 percentage points. Shifting enough votes to win a majority would require social conservatives to invest large sums of money into an additional statewide race, even as they try to unseat Gov. Chet Culver and win back control of the Iowa House (the Senate is probably a lost cause for the GOP in 2010).
Iowa social conservatives have a tough enough time just trying to control Republican primaries; they do not have the clout or the resources to win this one.
Then there are the campaign message concerns. The GOP will be campaigning against Culver on the issue of fiscal responsibility, among other things. Could they get away with advocating a constitutional convention process — which would surely cost more than recarpeting the Rebuild Iowa Office — at the same time? Is it worth undermining their critique of Culver to try to win a ballot question that is probably impossible to win anyway?
And then there’s this fact, which is perhaps the most concerning to Iowa’s social conservatives: If a constitutional convention were convened, Democrats would essentially control it. The legislature is in charge of determining how convention delegates are selected, and you can expect Democratic leaders there to to create a selection process unfavorable to the right.
So, after gay marriage opponents expend money and political capital to rewrite Iowa’s constitution, they will not actually be the ones rewriting it.
Priorities for a Democrat-controlled convention could include a constitutional right to abortion, stronger (and more specific) labor provisions, and changes to certain constitutionally protected funds like the one used for transportation infrastructure maintenance, among other things.
Expect powerful groups with interests in keeping the constitution the same — from the Farm Bureau, which supports the transportation infrastructure maintenance fund, to anti-abortion and anti-labor groups — to join the opposition to a constitutional convention.
And expect Republicans in tough races up and down the ballot to go along with the powerful interests, because politically they will not really have much of a choice.