Hawkeye Poll Shows Continued Lead For Clinton, Romney

Mitt Romney remains the clear front-runner in Iowa in a new University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll of probable caucus voters shows. Meanwhile, the poll shows that a dip in John Edwards’ numbers have allowed Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to tighten their holds on the No. 1 and No. 2 spots.

The new poll also confirms a surge by Republican Mike Huckabee who is enjoying growing support among Evangelical Christians. Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson are in a near-tie for second place, the poll shows.

Although Giuliani leads in most national polls, Romney is the preference of 36.2 percent of likely voters in the upcoming Republican caucus, with Giuliani second at 13.1 percent, Huckabee third with 12.8 percent and Thompson fourth at 11.4 percent. John McCain has 6.0 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 5.8 percent.

The poll also delivers some less obvious positive news for the Romney camp. Many polls have shown that despite the money Romney has invested in the state, his level of support has remained steady and, in some polls, even eroded during the last six months. The Hawkeye Poll, however, indicated that Romney has actually padded his lead in the state by eight points since the last survey.
While Romney leads in all demographic groups, there is evidence Huckabee is becoming a focus for Evangelical Christians. Caucus-goers who say they are “born again” or “Evangelical” are much more likely to support Huckabee than are those who are not. Huckabee is a strong second to Romney with this group, 21.2 percent to 29.2 percent, respectively. Among Republicans who do not consider themselves Evangelical, Huckabee receives only 6.4 percent, while Romney has 41.1 percent.
About 44 percent of Republican caucus-goers consider themselves born again or Evangelical, but they appear no more or less likely to caucus than those who do not, the poll shows.

Despite Romney’s lead, the race remains somewhat fluid among Republicans. In addition to the nearly 15 percent of Republicans who do not have a candidate preference, many say they remain at least somewhat likely to change their mind. Nearly 61 percent are somewhat likely to change, while another 8.4 percent are very likely. Only 28.9 percent say they will not change.

On the Democratic front, after declining between March and August, Clinton’s support has returned to March levels among likely caucus-goers while Obama’s support has also increased. Edwards, on the other hand, continues to see a decline in the number of likely caucus-goers who say he is their candidate.

Overall,  Hillary Clinton leads with 28.9 percent, followed by Barack Obama with 26.6 percent, John Edwards with 20 percent, Bill Richardson with 7.2 percent and Joe Biden with 5.3 percent.
The study shows that Clinton’s strength in the poll comes from her support among women, 33 percent for Clinton compared to 26.5 for Obama and 16.8 percent for Edwards. The poll shows the order reverses with men, where Obama leads 26.7 percent to Edwards at 25 percent and Clinton at 22.5 percent.

Among Democrats polled, 39.6 percent say they are not at all likely to change their minds on who to support, up from 33.6 percent in August. While 57.5 percent of Democrats now say they are somewhat or very likely to change their mind, this is down from 65.2 percent in August, indicating that while the race remains fluid, Democratic caucus-goers are now beginning to settle on their choices. Only 7.9 percent say they are very likely to change.