The Democratic Iowa Caucuses are likely to be held on Thursday, Jan. 3, 2008, based on the recommendations of the Iowa Democratic Party leadership to the State Central Committee, according to media reports. The State Central Committee will finalize the date on a conference call Sunday. Jan. 3 is the same date as the Republican Caucuses, and it is the earliest caucus date in history.
The implications of this date have been thoroughly analyzed during the past two months of speculation, but a brief summary of some of the possible effects is located below the fold.
- No colleges or universities will have ended their winter breaks by this date. Conventional wisdom is that this will make Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign to organize students difficult, but the payoffs of a good student organization will be larger if students are spread out across multiple cities rather than concentrated in a few big precincts.
- This is only three days into the New Year. Some Iowans will be out of town for the week, and many others will be just returning to town.
- This date is less than two weeks after Christmas. The final two weeks of the caucus season are often filled with wall-to-wall television ads, some of which are negative. How Iowans will react to attack ads on Christmas is unknown. Candidates also typically leave a few days around the holidays to stop bothering caucus-goers with phone calls and public appearances, but that may not be possible with this schedule.
- Moving up the caucus date may benefit Sen. John Edwards, who will not have to stretch his money in Iowa for an additional two weeks.
And one additional note: Although the Democratic State Central Committee is likely to heed the recommendation of a Jan. 3 date, it is not an absolute certainty. There is a chance that some prominent, vocal opponents of a Jan. 3 date will emerge, and no one is sure what New Hampshire will do, too. Still, that the Iowa Democratic Party is publicly announcing its recommendation means that the Jan. 3 date is likely to stick.